Drought in the Seychelles causes concern

Drought in the Seychelles causes concern




Press release 23.10.2017

The expected rainy season will not come as a really big relief. Less rainfall than usual for this time of year is expected in the coming months.

23.10.2017

Author:
Karl Schnürch

Source:
Own research
Seychelles.digital

The Meteorological Department explained this to be a forecast for the coming months. Senior technician for the Seychelles Meteorological Department, Marcel Belmont, said there is a possibility that the country may receive less rainfall in the coming months than is normally the case.
It would be advisable to start saving water from now on, especially as the weather conditions have been unfavourable in the last few months. September was the second driest month this year. We should act now and whenever possible to avoid a crisis in the near future.

Mr Belmont said in the coming months, weather conditions could be similar to September when we had only 14.7 millimetres of rain. He said the probability of below normal to near normal rainfall is about 50% to 60% between October and December 2017.

Mr Belmont explained that the climate phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has three states: the two opposing phases, El Niño and La Niña, and a "Neutral" phase that is in the middle of the continuum. We are now gradually leaving the neutral phase and moving towards the La Niña phase, which brings less rain. It is a phenomenon where the sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean plays a major role in climate worldwide. With warm sea surface temperatures over the central Pacific, there is also a corresponding warming in parts of the Indian Ocean. This could be one of the reasons why we are getting less than normal rainfall for the time being.

Talking about water conservation, he said the public should conserve water and avoid wastage. "As there are uncertainties in the coming weeks or months, it is advisable to use water properly and conserve it. Avoid wasting water, try and conserve it if possible. We should take immediate action."

Mr Belmont says: "The precipitation pattern is determined by major climate drivers such as sea surface temperature, the total water vapour column in the atmosphere, the Madden Julian Oscillation, sea surface pressure and ENSO with El Niño bringing more precipitation and La Niña bringing less precipitation, and so on. All these climate drivers play a role in the amount of precipitation we get over our country.

He also mentioned that the rainy season lasts from mid-October to mid-April in Seychelles. The rainfall pattern in Seychelles is such that we have more rainfall from November to March and less from April to October.

He explained that there was very little rainfall on Mahé and the outer islands in September 2017. This is again due to the neutral to weak La Niña phase currently underway. As a result, relatively dry weather prevailed over Seychelles during the month. The northern and southern regions of Mahé received less than 30 millimetres (mm) of rain. The station at Airport recorded only 14.7 mm of rain, while September 2016 recorded about 47.7 mm. The monthly average for September is 163 mm, so we have received below average rainfall for the last two years. September 2017 was not only the second driest month of the year, but also one of the driest Septembers we have ever had. The driest September was recorded in 1986 with only 13.0 mm of rainfall. In October 2016, 51.6 mm of rainfall was recorded in the month of October, while the monthly average was 177.7 mm, clearly showing that we have received below average rainfall in recent years.

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Karl Schnürch
Author: Karl Schnürch

In 2007 I started the website Seychelles.com to write everything I experienced from my head. Since then I have been constantly optimizing and expanding Seychelles.com to eventually present a complete picture of Seychelles on this site.

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